1. The Rift Goes Nuclear: From Allies to Adversaries
The once-unbreakable “UniTeam” coalition between the Marcos and Duterte clans has devolved into a bitter feud marked by personal attacks and power struggles. The breaking point came in June 2024 when Vice President Sara Duterte resigned as education secretary amid a congressional probe into alleged misuse of funds . By October, tensions exploded as Sara threatened to exhume the remains of Ferdinand Marcos Sr. and “behead” President Marcos Jr., a shocking escalation fueled by political vendettas .
Key Drivers of the Split:
- Foreign Policy Shifts: Marcos pivoted toward stronger U.S. alliances, abandoning Duterte’s pro-China stance, including rejecting the ICC’s drug war investigations targeting Duterte .
- Budget Battles: Accusations of “invalid” budget allocations and secret funds further strained relations, with Duterte claiming Marcos left items unfunded for discretionary use—a claim Marcos dismissed as “lies” .
- Dynastic Power Plays: The House of Representatives, led by Marcos’ cousin Speaker Martin Romualdez, intensified probes into Sara Duterte, framing her as a “secret fund-obsessed brat” .
The feud has reshaped the political landscape, with both families consolidating regional strongholds (Marcos in Luzon, Dutertes in Mindanao) while trading barbs over governance and legacy .
2. The Battleground: Senate Seats and Beyond
The 2025 elections will determine control of 12 Senate seats, 317 congressional positions, and thousands of local posts. However, the Senate race is the crown jewel for both camps:
Marcos’ Strategy:
- Legislative Dominance: A Senate majority would fast-track Marcos’ PHP6.35 trillion national budget and infrastructure reforms. Allies like Sen. Imee Marcos and Camille Villar (backed by PHP1 billion in ads) aim to secure dynastic control .
- Celebrity Endorsements: Action stars Bong Revilla and Lito Lapid leverage their fame to rally mass support for pro-Marcos policies .
Duterte’s Counterattack:
- Local Entrenchment: Rodrigo Duterte is running for an 8th term as Davao City mayor, while his son Paolo seeks a congressional seat. The clan dominates Davao, fielding three generations across five key posts .
- Senate Gambit: Sara Duterte hinted at a Senate run, though analysts caution this may be a media stunt to gauge public sentiment .
Wildcards:
- Progressive candidates like Danilo Ramos (Makabayan) challenge elite dominance, while party-list groups risk being co-opted by dynasties .
3. Key Candidates to Watch
National Contenders:
- Imee Marcos (Nacionalista): A vocal defender of her brother’s administration, positioning herself as a bridge to Ilocano voters .
- Camille Villar (Nacionalista): Part of the Villar dynasty, spending heavily on ads to secure a Senate seat .
- Rodrigo Duterte: His potential Senate bid aims to disrupt Marcos’ agenda, though skepticism remains about his follow-through .
Local Dynasties:
- Davao City: Rodrigo vs. Karlo Nograles—a proxy war testing the Dutertes’ grip on their bailiwick .
- Ilocos Sur: The Singson clan, led by Luis “Chavit,” seeks to reclaim influence in the Senate .
Celebrity Candidates:
- Willie Revillame, a TV host, leverages mass appeal to position himself as a “champion of the common people” .
4. The Broader Implications: Dynasties vs. Democracy
Dynastic Dominance:
- 113 of 149 Philippine cities are ruled by political clans, with dynasties like the Marcos-Romualdezes and Dutertes controlling multiple tiers of government .
- Poverty Links: Studies show dynastic rule correlates with underdevelopment, as resources funnel toward elite interests rather than public welfare .
Anti-Dynasty Movements:
- Advocates like Eirene Aguila urge voters to reject dynasts, but Congress has stalled anti-dynasty laws for decades .
- The Alternatibo 2025 alliance emerges as a progressive alternative, though it faces an uphill battle against entrenched elites .
2028 Preview:
- The midterms will shape Sara Duterte’s viability as a 2028 presidential candidate. Her declining popularity (-15% nationally) contrasts with Marcos’ rising support (+38%) .
5. What Voters Need to Know
Campaign Spending:
- Elite candidates outspend grassroots rivals by billions, raising fairness concerns. The Villars and Marcoses dominate ad spaces, drowning out smaller voices .
Election Security:
- 38 localities are classified as “red areas” due to violence risks, with POGOs (Philippine Offshore Gaming Operators) suspected of bankrolling candidates to evade regulation .
Voter Power:
- Independents (26%): This bloc could tip the balance if disillusioned voters reject both dynasties .
- Mindanao’s Role: The Dutertes’ last stronghold (48% support) faces Marcos’ push to expand influence .
Final Thoughts: A Crossroads for Philippine Democracy
The 2025 elections are not just a clash of titans but a referendum on the Philippines’ future. Will dynasties tighten their grip, or can reformists break through? As scandals and power struggles dominate headlines, remember: your vote is your voice. Scrutinize platforms, demand accountability, and reject politics of vendetta.